Some climate models predict that warming could cause more intense storms like those that occurred in the South East of America on Wednesday night. But this does not mean that the southern storms and tornadoes were a manifestation of climate change. Scientists climatologists say that the consequences of climate impacts on weather may be apparent after a long time.
"The impact of climate change in all weather conditions can only be seen in the statistics - the excessive precipitation in the form of frequent showers, a common water evaporation, more heat waves, fewer cold nights" - said Gavin Schmidt (Gavin Schmidt), climate scientist from the Institute of Space Research NASA. "But the combination of events that leads to a series of rare and complex of tornadoes that we have seen. Require scientists climatologists predict the exact date of when it will happen - just demand the impossible."
Even in severe storms, tornadoes are relatively rare. The long, rotating thunderstorms called superelement storms are breeding grounds for serious tornadoes, but only about 25 percent of the storms superelement go into a tornado.
In order to form, storms superelement requires two atmospheric components - warm, moist air near the surface that comes into conflict with the cool air high in the atmosphere, and vertical wind shear, or change the speed and direction of winds aloft. When warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is in conflict with the vertical wind shear caused by a strong jet form superelement. The question for the climate scientist, now is whether climate change contribute to clash with each other these two atmospheric components.
While there is no sufficiently accurate models that predict the birth of individual storms, climate scientists, researchers can use computer simulations to determine the weather conditions that are likely to cause storms. Assess the impact of climate change on tornadoes especially difficult because they are not as easily detected as other weather disasters, such as hurricanes. Many recent tornadoes occurred in populated areas during the day, but nighttime tornadoes in rural areas can not always be detected. In order to give a precise proof that climate influences the event of storms, the researchers compared the objective data decades later.
Meanwhile, meteorologists are working to identify the conditions that trigger the transformation of a tornado in SuperElement. Researchers know the warning signs to look for, and they even know where tornadoes are likely to appear (southwest side). But to determine exactly what will turn into a series of rotating storm of monstrous tornadoes, still remains elusive.
"Twister - it’s very chaotic animal" - said one of the researchers. "Figure out the last part, which is the last small step, it is very difficult."
Original: LiveScience Translation: M. Potter