Climate Change in the sun will lead to deterioration of space weather


05/04/2012

Researchers from the University of Reading (UK) led by Luke Barnard showed that the space age in the history of mankind strangely coincided with a period of incredibly high solar activity, or the so-called grand maximum.

The isotopes that are in the ice sheets, as well as tree rings indicate that these great solar maxima was about 24 over the past 9300 years. But the current coming to an end, that is, the levels of the magnetic field of the sun will soon fall, the number of sunspots significantly reduced, and coronal mass ejections will occur less frequently.

This is all reflected in the cosmic radiation, which is of great interest to scientists and engineers, as it is a threat for a variety of artificial systems (satellites, for example), and the potential to cause considerable harm to astronauts, as well as (to a lesser extent) the crews of aircraft, in particular high flying.

There are some theoretical predictions based on observations that the decrease in the average magnetic field of the sun will cause the increase in the number of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) that reach the Earth’s vicinity. Meanwhile, according to forecasts, in spite of the fact that due to the decrease in solar activity will become more scarce emission of high-energy, solar flares are much stronger and can do more harm.

A comparative analysis of the great high with 24 prior, Dr. Barnard predicted 8% probability that the activity lights to fall to very low levels, which can be compared with the so-called Maunder minimum XVII century, the researchers have observed a few sunspots. Under this scenario, the GCR flux is likely to increase by 2.5 times, and large emissions of high energy particles will occur approximately twice per century.

Likely that in the next 40 years, the active light will be reduced by about half, while the GCR flux will increase by about 1.5 times, and the emission of high-energy particles in large numbers will be observed up to eight times per century. As a result, the near-Earth space radiation is likely to become even more dangerous.

New data were presented by scientists at the British-German national astronomical conference, held in Manchester.


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