# Scientists have calculated mathematically the most likely winner of the World Cup

10/07/2010

New Mining tactics teams, allowed to calculate that the best chance of winning the World Cup, the final of which will be held on Sunday, from Spain. He also showed why England lost to Germany.

Mathematicians and football supporters Dr Javier Lopez Pena and doctoral Hugo Touchett from the University of London, meticulously collected data on the transfers of the ball, with all the World Cup games and analyzed them in order to detect differences in the style of the game commands.

Using a mathematical technique called graph theory, they found mistakes in tactics which allowed the England team in the game against Germany and made predictions for the Netherlands-Spain game that can compete with the predictor-octopus.

For each of the competing teams, doctors and Touchett Lopez Pena drew a "network" of passes between players throughout the tournament and analyzed how the network is correlated between the teams. Dr. Touchett explains: "Each player in the network is assigned a certain number of points, which we call the Central. It expresses the degree of usefulness of the player for the team. Higher the number of points of centrality, the greater the impact would have a lack of players. This method is commonly used to optimize computer networks, but it can also be used for the calculation of the strategy football ".

Graph theory is used to analyze different types of networks, often for the study of computer networks - such as the Internet, and to calculate the impact that would have on the network as a whole, the lack of its individual parts. This allows researchers to make the network more reliable and less prone to breakage.

The scheme shows the significant advantage of the Spanish players, as they have done many more passes during the World Cup: almost 40 per cent more than the players of Team Germany, and twice as many Netherlanders. "This team relies on swift passes that are well distributed among the players, especially between the central" - said Dr. Lopez Pena.

David Villa, who has scored the most goals in this tournament, received an average of 37 passes per game, more than any other striker of all the other teams. Dr. Lopez Pena said: "The level of play Villas are very impressive, compared with the game Fernando Torres, who has not scored a single goal during the entire tournament. This was reflected in the successful tactics of the Spaniards: Torres passed an average of 13 passes per game, and Villiers 37" .

Noprotiv, The Dutch play from the defense, which is reflected in the small number of passes between players, which are aimed primarily at the attackers. Dr. Lopez Pena said: "The low number of passes shows that the Dutch prefer quick tactical game of attack and counter-attack. Most often they score goals worked out well in advance of situations, such as free kicks, they use the physical presence to win over opponents.

The analysis shows that the British have a more balanced composition, none of the players is more important than the team as a whole. Dr. Lopez Pena said: "Good work in the area of midfield Frank Lampard, Steven Gerard and Gareth Barry not transferred to the attacking game, where Wayne Rooney is on average three times more passes than Jermain Defoe. This makes the English attack very predictable and easily neutralized by blocking Rooney, who usually have to pass the ball back to Gerard. "

Network Germans proved to be more balanced than the network of the England team, with a lot of passes, which implies a free circulation of the ball. "It is particularly important passes between Philipp Lahm and Bastian Shveynsteygerom and most of the attacks of the Germans built on defense. Mesut Ozil copes with the role of an interface between defense and attack, making the game the Germans from the protection of a very effective and difficult to neutralize. A key player in the German strategy remains Shveynsteyger which effectively blocked by typical Spanish midfielders fast-moving ball, which was the decisive argument in the semifinal defeat of Germany "- said Dr. Lopez Pena.

Original: Eurekaler

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